Page 40 - ACTL Journal Win24

RETIRED VICE ADMIRAL CHARLES W. MARTOGLIO
AMERICA AND THE WORLD TO 2030: COMPETITION, CONFRONTATION, OR CONFLICT?
IN A CAREER SPANNING FOUR DECADES, RETIRED NAVY VICE ADMIRAL CHARLES MARTOGLIO COMMANDED SHIPS AND AN AIRCRAFT CARRIER TASKFORCE. WHEN NOT AT SEA, HE SPENT SOME TWENTY-YEARS IN THE PENTAGON SERVING AS A SPE- CIALIST IN GLOBAL DEFENSE AND SECURITY ISSUES. HIS PRESENTATION AT OUR MEETING WAS HIS PERSPECTIVE ON THREATS AND ISSUES RELATED TO AMERICAN SECURITY AND THE BALANCE OF POWER WORLDWIDE AS WE APPROACH 2030.
To highlight his presentation, Vice Admiral Martoglio deployed a slide show packed with information and in- sights. “Packed” doesn’t do those slides justice; “crammed” might be more appropriate. When he displayed the slide, he quickly explained “Please don’t gasp when you see this slide. I promised your conference organizers I would not talk about every bullet on this slide. It’s really meant to be an impact slide. This slide, I update every week. These are the issues that are of interest to Washington-level national security planners as we sit here today.”
So, a lot to cover; too many issues and insights. But Vice Admiral Martoglio distilled the contents into several major takeaways that are central to his view of global security in this portion of the twenty-first century.
With reference to the world superpowers and the contest between the United States (and its allies) and China (and its allies), his message was reduced to: NEITHER SIDE HAS TO WIN, BUT NEITHER SIDE CAN AFFORD TO LOSE.
”If you remember nothing else about what I say this morn- ing, nothing else, remember . . . neither side has to win but neither side can afford to lose. So what does that mean? It means that you don’t have to go to war to preserve your governance type and your economic system because there’s enough in the world for two separate systems. But you can’t lose the competition because if you do, you subordinate your governance and economic system to the winner. We can’t let China win and China can’t let us win but you don’t have to win; you just can’t lose. If you only remember one thing from my discussion this morning, that’s the thing I ask you to take away.”
The conflicts are over the type of governments (democrat- ic v. authoritarian), the economic systems (state-sponsored capitalism v. free markets), geography, control of the high seas, control of international airspace, space, and cyberspace. These are highlighted by considering China’s recent claims of sovereignty over coastal waters bordering the Pacific Ocean.
Turning specifically to mainland China and its leader Xi Jin- ping, Admiral Martoglio noted that since Xi rose to power in 2012, the struggle within China has shifted from focus- ing upon economic growth to preserving the primacy of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).
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